Policy Scenarios

We produce a set of counterfactual scenarios, as an alternative to the Reference, in order to assess how they can affect sustainability. Namely:

Social Policy Scenario

  • Least Developed Countries and BRIICS are forced to increase their expenditure in Education and Public Health by up to 5% and 3% of GDP, respectively, in this way matching UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network Sustainable Development Goals no. 3 and no. 5;

Environmental Policy Scenario

  • Developed Countries and BRIICS are constrained to reduce their own Carbon Dioxide emissions by 40% with respect to 1990 in line with UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network Sustainable Development Goal no. 8, as well as the proposed target from the European Commission for 2030; moreover, we assume an increase in water efficiency in agriculture and industry, worldwide;

Sustainable Development Policy Scenario

  • This policy considers, simultaneously, both Social and Environmental Policy Scenarios. Moreover, it proposes an increase in R&D expenditure – moving towards the 3% target – in Developed Countries, coupled with a positive technological transfer to Least Developed Countries and BRIICS through international spillovers.